原标题：Why stock, bond investors shouldn’t ‘just buy everything’
市场记者：Joseph Adinolfi 编辑：解盘侠财经
解盘侠说：
观察美国新总统上任之后的美联储议息会和会议纪要，以及国会年度报告，美联储主席耶伦似乎没有再给市场带来什么“新意”，今天凌晨公布的纪要就是如此，而这种“平静”背后蕴藏了美国股市的“歌舞升平”，三大股指不断刷新1999年以来的连续新高记录。本周二的CNBC节目横幅打出的标语极具代表性：“JUST BUY EVERYTHING？”简单的理解为，股市这么火，什么股票都能买么？当市场大多数人在鼓吹苹果、沃尔玛股价涨得有多高、未来多美好时，是否意味着投资者的兴奋点已经被诱惑的越来越接近极限。格林伍德资本首席投资官今天发表言论：“我没有看到市场状况有什么改观，美联储正在努力给自己营造最大的回旋空间。”借用著名投资者约翰·邓普顿著名的格言：“牛市在悲观中诞生，在怀疑中成长，在乐观中成熟，在兴奋中毁灭。”当全美广播公司鼓吹“什么股票都可以买”时，美股恰恰成了全球最危险的资产！
最近交易员看着彭博终端，看到的是一片绿色的海洋。
几乎所有的市场都处于上涨中。美股连续创出新高，欧洲股市上涨，日经225指数上涨，中国股市也在攀升。
与此同时,主要的债券收益率（与价格走势相反）也在上涨，但涨幅不大。10年期美国国债收益率约为2.400%，德国10年期是0.3%以下。只有法国债券收益率显著上升。
iShares iBoxx美元高收益企业债券ETF创出自2015年7月以来的最高水平。
新兴市场也表现得很不错：iShares 核心MSCI新兴市场ETF今年迄今为止上涨13%以上。墨西哥比索兑美元触及其自选举以来的最高水平。
据几位市场战略家说，看来唐纳德•特朗普总统承诺削减公司税、增加基础设施支出和放松监管让华尔街投资者处于一种兴奋的状态。这周二播出CNBC节目“快钱”的字幕可能很好的描述投资者的情绪。
CNBC横幅：“最佳行为：所有的都可以买么？”看到它，一些华尔街人的失望变得可以理解。
“每当看到这样的标题，就表示该紧张了。”荷兰合作银行（Rabobank）一组市场策略师在周二晚间发表的一份研究报告指出。
林赛集团董事总经理兼首席市场分析师Peter Boockvar周三在一份报告中用著名投资者约翰·邓普顿著名的格言来提醒他的客户：“牛市在悲观中诞生，在怀疑中成长，在乐观中成熟，在兴奋中毁灭。”
Boockvar警告说，重要的是，投资者至少需要考虑这波上涨的持续性问题。考虑到这些显然是建立在对特朗普财政政策的期望上。道琼斯工业股票平均价格指数自11月8日选举以来飙升超过13%，而纳斯达克综合指数(Nasdaq Composite Index)同期上涨约13%，标准普尔500指数已上涨约10.5%。周三，蓝筹股指数创出自1987年1月以来的最长连涨记录。
然而，政府政策的细节却迟迟没有浮出水面。
由总统签署了一项行政命令，启动之前被废除的多德-弗兰克（dodd - frank），该法令中所包含的条款可以提升2008 - 09年金融危机之后银行承担风险的能力。但政府尚未完成其他财政方面的完善。
现在，边境调整税收在议会里被共和党人像白宫发言人保罗·瑞安所追捧，但是似乎面临阻力。特朗普目前并没有提供计划的相关细节，尽管有些人怀疑这些细节即将于2月28日国会上公布。
基础设施支出何时到来呢？特朗普说，他希望在未来十年花费1万亿美元。但还不清楚他是否能得到国会足够的支持来全面通过这一立法。
Boockvar说，事实上，“大部分的市场热情是受到大幅削减企业税率预期的提振”。
同时，Boockvar着重指出某些指标似乎表明，看涨情绪已经达到了极端，钟摆将向另一个方向摆动。
Boockvar说，最近几周投资顾问所调查得到的投资者看涨情绪的水平在过去的几十年里才见过几次。
看涨情绪本周是61.2，上周是61.8，而看跌情绪数值很小，只有17.5。
14天的相对强弱指数是衡量某资产相对于过去表现的强弱程度，纳斯达克- 100 周二收报84.7，达到自1992年1月以来的最高水平。背景是：2000年1月也就是17年前互联网泡沫破灭时的数值为84.2。
Boockvar说，当然，仅仅因为当前的情绪在历史上出现同样的情况，并不能保证同样的抛售即将来临。但是，我们不能否认的事实是，股票当前已经达到了其历史高峰。
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原文：
Why stock, bond investors shouldn’t ‘just buy everything’
Joseph AdinolfiMarkets reporter
Lately, when traders have glanced at their Bloomberg terminals, they’ve been greeted by a sea of green.
Nearly everywhere, markets are in rally mode. U.S. stocks have sailed to an impressive series of records. European stocks are up, The Nikkei 225 is on the rise, Chinese stocks are climbing.
Meanwhile, major bond yields, which move inversely to prices, also have risen, but not by much. The 10-year Treasury yield is around 2.400%, the German 10-year is below 0.3%. Only French bonds are seeing a significant rise in yields.
The iShares iBoxx dollar high yield corporate bond ETF is trading around its highest level since July 2015.
Emerging markets are doing swimmingly, too: The iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets ETF is up more than 13% so far this year. The Mexican peso touched its strongest level against the dollar since the election.
It appears that President Donald Trump’s promises to slash corporate taxes, boost infrastructure spending and deregulate Wall Street have left investors in a state of euphoria, according to several market strategists. The mood among investors was perhaps most appropriately captured by this CNBC chyron from a “Fast Money” segment that aired on Tuesday.
“Best move: Just buy everything?” the CNBC banner read. Upon seeing it, some on Wall Street were understandably chagrined.
“Whenever one sees headlines like that, it is time to get nervous,” said a team of market strategists at Rabobank in a research note published late Tuesday.
Peter Boockvar, managing director and chief market analyst at the Lindsey Group, reminded his clients in a Wednesday note of famed investor John Templeton’s famous aphorism: “Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria.”
Boockvar cautioned that it is important that investors at least question the durability of this rally, given that so much of it has apparently been built upon expectations for Trump’s fiscal policies. The Dow Jones Industrial has soared more than 13% since the Nov. 8 election, while the Nasdaq Composite Index has added about 13% over the period and the S&P 500 has gained about 10.5%. On Wednesday, the blue-chip gauge cemented its longest run of record closes since January 1987.
However, few policy details from the Trump’s administration have surfaced.
An executive order signed by the president set in motion the repeal of parts of Dodd-Frank, which includes rules that were intended to rein in banks’ ability to take risks in the wake of the 2008-09 financial crisis. But his administration has yet to accomplished much else on the fiscal front.
As of right now, the border-adjusted tax favored by congressional Republicans like House Speaker Paul Ryan appears to be meeting resistance. Trump hasn’t offered specifics about his preferred plan, though some suspect they could be forthcoming when Trump addresses Congress Feb. 28.
As for the timing of infrastructure spending? Trump has said he would like to spend $1 trillion over the next 10 years. But it is unclear whether he can muster sufficient support in Congress to enact such sweeping of legislation.
Indeed, “much of the ebullience is being driven by hopes over a large cut in the corporate tax rate,” said Boockvar.
Meanwhile, several indicators highlighted by Boockvar seem to suggest that bullish sentiment has reached extremes—and that the pendulum is poised to swing back in the other direction.
For one, the level of bullish sentiment reflected in the most recent weekly Investors Intelligence survey of investment advisers has only been seen a handful of times over the past few decades, Boockvar noted.
Bulls totaled 61.2 in this week’s survey, compared with 61.8 last week. Bears were a “microscopic” 17.5, Boockvar said.
The 14-day relative-strength index, which is a measure of an asset’s momentum relative to its past performance, for the Nasdaq-100 closed at 84.7 on Tuesday, its highest level since January 1992. For context: It was at 84.2 in January 2000, just before the dot-com bubble burst 17 years ago.
Of course, just because sentiment appears stretched relative to history doesn’t guarantee that a selloff is nigh. But still, “we can’t deny the fact of where stocks are trading relative to other historical peaks,” Boockvar said.