根据时事通信社（Jiji Press）的报道，跨太平洋伙伴关系协定（Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement, TPP）11国首席谈判官会议于本月12日-14日在日本神奈川县（Kanagawa Prefecture）举行。这次会议的主要任务是修改美国退出后的TPP生效条件，以及探讨是否要修订部分协议条款。在11个成员国中，日本、新西兰等国希望TPP尽早生效，而越南、加拿大等国则保持谨慎态度。因此，不论日本如何积极运作，TPP在年内生效的可能性依然很低。
由于日本与欧盟的EPA（Economic Partnership Agreement,经济伙伴关系协定）谈判在本月初达成了框架协议，所以日本意图借这一契机来加速实现TPP的生效。诚然，日本积极推动EPA与TPP将有利于对冲当前在世界范围内不断泛起的贸易保护主义风潮，但这两项多边经贸协定对日本而言也是把双刃剑。一方面，日本借助EPA与TPP将能够获得不小的经济效益，但另一方面来自欧洲、澳大利亚或者新西兰的农产品以低关税甚至零关税进入日本市场后，也将极大地冲击日本的传统农业格局。鉴于日本的农业群体是自民党的主要支持者，所以EPA与TPP相继生效后也必将冲击安倍政权的稳定。
自年初特朗普政权宣布美国退出TPP后，安倍政权成了该多边贸易协定的主要推动者。安倍政权之所以如此坚持，笔者认为主要有两方面原因。首先，安倍政权寻求以多边贸易协定来对抗特朗普政权的双边贸易压力。在G20峰会期间的日美首脑会谈中，特朗普总统在谈及日美贸易赤字问题的同时，还要求日方降低关税、开放市场等。尽管日本是美国在亚太地区最为忠诚的盟友之一，但在对美经贸谈判中的话语权却十分有限。由于稍早前日欧EPA达成框架协议，若TPP能在年内生效的话，那么安倍政权便可以这两项多边贸易协定来对抗特朗普政权的经贸压力。
其次，推动TPP的尽早生效也是为支撑“安倍经济学”。自2012年底至今，安倍首相的主要政绩都集中在外交领域，而在经济领域却并无过多的建树，由此使得“安倍经济学”倍受质疑。然而，TPP生效后，其GDP总额将占世界的15%左右，而美国若能再度加入的话，则将上升为40%左右。因此，TPP的越早生效，就能越早为日本注入经济增长动力，进而掩盖“安倍经济学”的不足。
除了内政方面的考量外，安倍政权对TPP的固执也包含了对抗中国的意图。近年来，中国经济的高速发展使得作为昔日亚洲经济大国的日本黯然失色许多，尽管日本与欧盟基本签署了EPA这一超大型经贸协议，但该协议对于提升日本在亚洲地区的影响力并无任何帮助。因此，安倍政权坚持推动TPP的目的既是为了避免被不断崛起的中国的光芒掩盖，也是为了维护其在亚洲的经济大国地位与话语权。
同时，从地缘政治格局来看，在日欧EPA框架协议签署后，若覆盖亚太地区的TPP能够尽早生效的话，那么日本便可以实现对中国的战略围堵，特别是从东西两侧围堵中国正在积极推动实施的“一带一路”合作项目，进而压制“一带一路”的影响力与发展空间。
当然，日本对TPP前景的雄心勃勃，并不意味着就一定能如愿以偿。TPP能从最初仅由几个小国牵头成立的经济合作集团发展为现在的大型多边经贸组织，这和美国的参与是分不开的。如今美国已经退出了TPP，作为成员国中经济规模最大的日本也很难肩负起主导者的角色。虽然日本是仅次于美国和中国的世界第3大经济体，但其国内市场规模与国际影响力显然无法与同为安理会常任理事国且国内市场规模巨大的美国和中国相提并论。在TPP成员国中不乏希望中国加入的背景下，日本能够发挥的领导力将非常有限，而这也决定了日本无法通过一己之力推动TPP的真正生效。
The chief negotiators from the 11 Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) countries met from July 12 to 14 in Kanagawa Prefecture, Japan, to discuss possible options for the trade deal's early entry into force now that the US has withdrawn from the deal. They also discussed whether the deal needs to be altered. Among the 11 members, Japan and New Zealand want the TPP to come into effect as soon as possible while Vietnam and Canada are cautious about it. In this sense, there is only a slim possibility that the pact can be implemented this year despite Japan's efforts.
Japan intends to use its broad accord with the EU on the Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) reached in early July to achieve the early implementation of the TPP. This endeavor helps hedge against the rising trend of protectionism around the world, but the two free trade pacts are a double-edged sword for Japan. While Japan can economically benefit from the implementation of the EPA and TPP, its agricultural industry may have to suffer a huge shakeup caused by the entry of agricultural products from Europe, Australia and New Zealand at low or even zero tariffs. This will eventually shake the stability of the administration of Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe since he is predominantly supported by rural farmers.
The Abe administration has relentlessly tried to promote the implementation of the TPP after the US withdrew in early 2017 for two reasons. First, Japan seeks to offset trade pressure exerted by the Donald Trump administration with multilateral trade pacts. When meeting with Abe on the sidelines of the G20 summit earlier this month, Trump called for Japan to knock down tariff barriers and open up its market. Japan has limited say in economic and trade negotiations with the US despite being one of the most loyal allies of the US in the Asia-Pacific region.
Abe also intends to bolster his Abenomics with the early entry into force of the TPP. Despite his diplomatic achievements since he retook office at the end of 2012, the economy has performed poorly and Abenomics has been widely questioned. The GDP of the 11 TPP countries accounts for 15 percent of the world's total. Its early implementation can help drive Japan's economic growth and therefore cover up the defects of Abenomics.
Abe also wants to confront China by using the TPP. China's rapidly developing economy in recent years has significantly dwarfed Japan - once an economic power in Asia - and the EPA will not help in elevating Japan's clout in Asia. Abe relentlessly promotes the TPP to avoid Japan being outshined by a rising China and to safeguard its position as an economic power in Asia.
Geopolitically, if the TPP can be implemented in addition to the broad accord of the EPA, Japan will be able to strategically contain China, particularly China's Belt and Road initiative, by diminishing its influence and development space.
However, Japan's expectation for the TPP won't necessarily become reality. US participation in the pact is crucial to the TPP's development. After the US pulled out of the pact, Japan, the largest economy among the TPP members, can hardly work as a leader. After all, Japan is unable to be in the same category as the US and China in terms of domestic market size and international clout. Japan has limited space to play a leadership role and hence is unable to put the TPP into effect on its own.
（The author is a PhD candidate with the Tokyo-based Toyo University. ）
文章来源：推荐稿件globaltimes；国关国政外交学人微信公众号平台编辑