可能现在很多同学年纪太小不知道章鱼保罗是谁，大王先简单科普下：
章鱼保罗并不是一个人的艺名，这个名字属于一只生于英国，长在德国的真的章鱼。
当年世界杯开始后，每逢德国队的比赛，水族馆的管理人员都会将德国队和对手的国旗贴在两个水族箱上，然后放进食物，以保罗选择吃哪个水族箱的食物来判断谁能获胜，结果，保罗对于德国队的情况简直是了如指掌，7场比赛全部预测正确。
当时“出道”两年的章鱼保罗在2008欧洲杯和2010世界杯两届大赛中，预测14次猜对13次、成功率飙升至92%，堪称不折不扣的“章鱼帝”。2010年，距离他万里之遥的中国中学生纷纷叫嚷，“信保罗，不挂科”。
然而，章鱼保罗这根本不算什么，因为真正的神级预测帝是比尔·盖茨。
In 1999, Bill Gates wrote a book titled "Business @ the Speed of Thought."
In it, Gates made 15 bold predictions that at the time might have sounded outrageous.
But as Markus Kirjonen, a business student, said on his blog, Gates' forecasts turned out to be eerily prescient.
Here are the 15 predictions Gates made nearly 20 years ago — and how close they've come to being true.
在1999年，比尔·盖茨写了一本名叫《商业@思想的速度》的书。
在这本书里，盖茨做了在当时可能听起来十分令人吃惊的十五个大胆猜想。
一个修商业的学生马库斯在他的博客里写道，盖茨的预测可怕地折射出他的先见之明。
No. 1: Price-comparison sites.（价格比较网站）
Gates' prediction: "Automated price comparison services will be developed, allowing people to see prices across multiple websites, making it effortless to find the cheapest product for all industries."
What we see now: You can easily search for a product on Google or Amazon and get different prices. Sites like NexTag and PriceGrabber are built specifically to compare prices.
盖茨预言：“自动价格比较服务会被大力发展，这能允许人们在许多网站上看不同的价格，然后很轻松地找到所有行业汇总最便宜的产品。”
如今所见：你可以轻轻松松在谷歌或者是亚马逊上搜索一个商品然后得到不同的价格。而像NexTag和PriceGrabber网站就是专门用来比较价格的。
No. 2: Mobile devices.（移动设备）
Gates' prediction: "People will carry around small devices that allow them to constantly stay in touch and do electronic business from wherever they are. They will be able to check the news, see flights they have booked, get information from financial markets, and do just about anything else on these devices."
What we see now: Smartphones, and now smartwatches, do all of this.
盖茨预言：“人们会携带小设备，这些设备可以允许他们即时联系并且无论他们在哪儿都可以进行电子商务。他们能够看新闻，看他们所预定的航班，从金融市场获取信息，还可以在这些设备上做任何事。”
如今我们所看到的：智能手机，以及如今的智能手表都可以做到这些。
No. 3: Instant payments and financing online, and better healthcare through the web.
（即时付款和在线金融，以及更好的在线医疗服务）
Gates' prediction:"People will pay their bills, take care of their finances, and communicate with their doctors over the internet."
What we see now:Tech hasn't been able to change healthcare the way Uber changed transportation, but sites like ZocDoc aim to make finding a doctor and scheduling easier. Startups like One Medical and Forward are trying to change what the doctor's office is like by offering monthly memberships for online and data-driven healthcare.
You can also now borrow money online through sites like Lending Club and easily make payments through sites and apps like PayPal and Venmo.
盖茨预言：“人们将会通过互联网来付账单，管理他们的财政，以及和他们的医生交流。”
如今所见：科技并没有像优步改变交通一样改变了医疗，但是像ZocDoc这样的网站计划让找医生和预约变得更简便。现在已经启动的一些网站比如One Medical和Forward正在通过提供在线的月制会员资格以及依照数据处理的医疗服务来改变医生传统的办公室看病。
现在你也可以在网上从Lending Club这种网站上借钱，而且可以在线或者通过Paypal和Venmo这些软件来轻松还钱。
No. 4: Personal assistants and the internet of things.（私人助理和物联网）
Gates' prediction: "‘Personal companions' will be developed. They will connect and sync all your devices in a smart way, whether they are at home or in the office, and allow them to exchange data. The device will check your email or notifications, and present the information that you need. When you go to the store, you can tell it what recipes you want to prepare, and it will generate a list of ingredients that you need to pick up."
What we see now: Google Now, a smart assistant that runs on mobile devices, is starting to head in this direction. Meanwhile, smart devices like Nest collect data on your daily routines and automatically adjust your house's temperature.
盖茨预言：“‘私人同伴’会被发展。不管它们被放在家或者是在办公室里，它们都可以用智能方式连接和同步你所有的设备来改变数据。这个设备可以查看你的邮件或通知，并且展示你所需要的信息。当你去商店的时候，你可以告诉它你想要准备什么样的食谱，然后它会产生一个你需要采购的食材清单。”
如今所见：Google Now是一个在手机上运行的智能助手，现在已经开始朝着这方面发展了。同时，像Nest这样的只能设备会根据你的日常惯例来收集数据并且自动调节你家里的温度。
No. 5: Online home-monitoring.（在线家庭监控）
Gates' prediction: "Constant video feeds of your house will become common, which inform you when somebody visits while you are not home."
What we see now: Google bought Dropcam, the maker of a home-surveillance camera, for $555 million in 2014. But that was just the beginning — Ring makes a smart doorbell camera that can let you see who is at your door. There are even cameras like the Petcube that let you control a laser so you can play with your pets while you're away.
盖茨预言：“家里不间断的监控视频反馈会变得普遍，当你不在家的时候，如果有什么人来了它会通知你。”
如今所见：谷歌在2014年以5.55亿美元收购了家庭监控的制造者——Dropcam.但是那只是一个开始。Ring还做出了智能门铃摄像头可以让你看到谁在敲你家门。甚至还有像Petcube这样的摄像头可以让你控制激光，这样挡你不在家的时候也可以跟你的宠物玩。
No. 6: Social media.（社交媒体）
Gates' prediction:"Private websites for your friends and family will be common, allowing you to chat and plan for events."
What we see now: Two billion people already use Facebook to see what their friends are doing and plan events. There's also Snapchat, Instagram, WhatsApp, and Facebook Messenger alongside an explosion of other smaller social networks that more than cover this prediction.
盖茨预言：“能够让你跟朋友或家人聊天并且做计划的网站会变得普遍。”
如今所见：已经有两百万人使用脸书去看他们的朋友们在干嘛并且一起计划一些事。还有一些社交媒体如Snapchat,Instagram,WhatsApp,Facebook Messenger以及其他一些小型社交网络比这个预言涉及到的内容更多。
No. 7: Automated promotional offers.（自动优惠促销）
Gates' prediction: "Software that knows when you've booked a trip and uses that information to suggest activities at the local destination. It suggests activities, discounts, offers, and cheaper prices for all the things that you want to take part in."
What we see now:Travel sites like Expedia and Kayak offer deals based on a user's past purchase data. Google and Facebook can offer promotional ads based on the user's location and interests. Airbnb, which lets people stay in homes rather than hotels, started to offer specialized trips at destinations so you can live like a local, too.
盖茨预言：会有知道你什么时候预定了一次旅行并且利用那个信息向你提出一些可以在当地游玩的活动的软件。它会给出一些你想要参与的事情的活动、折扣、提议、以及便宜的价格的建议。
如今所见：像Expedia和Kayak这些旅行网站会基于用户过去的购买数据来提出一些交易。谷歌和脸书可以根据用户的地理位置和兴趣爱好来提供促销广告。Airbnb,这个让人们出行住别人家里而不是酒店里的网站也开始提供一些特色旅行这样你可以像当地人一样居住。
No. 8: Live sports discussion sites.（直播体育讨论网站）
Gates' prediction: "While watching a sports competition on television, services will allow you to discuss what is going on live, and enter a contest where you vote on who you think will win."
What we see now: A bunch of social media sites allow this, with Twitter being the clear leader . You can also leave comments in real time on sports sites like ESPN.
盖茨预言：“当人们在电视上看一个体育比赛时，会有可以让你讨论直播中正在进行的赛事的服务，并且还会有你可以给你认为会赢的人的投票竞赛。”
如今所见：很多的社交媒体都可以做到这点，推特明显成为了领头羊。你也可以在像ESPN这样的体育网站上实时留下自己的评论。
No. 9: Smart advertising.（智能广告）
Gates' prediction: "Devices will have smart advertising. They will know your purchasing trends, and will display advertisements that are tailored toward your preferences."
What we see now: Just look at the ads you see on Facebook or Google — most online advertising services have this feature, where advertisers can target users based on their click history, interests, and purchasing patterns.
盖茨预言：“设备上会有智能广告，它们会知道你的购买倾向，并且会围绕你的喜好为你量身定制播放广告。”
如今所见：光看看你脸书或谷歌上面的广告就会知道大多数的广告服务会有这样的特点，广告商们基于用户的过去点击历史，兴趣以及付款模式来瞄准目标用户。
No. 10: Links to sites during live TV.（在电视直播时的网站链接）
Gates' prediction: "Television broadcast will include links to relevant websites and content that complement what you are watching."
What we see now:Almost every commercial these days has a callout asking the viewer to go to a website. It's rare to see a broadcast without a website linked at all.
盖茨预言：“电视节目在放送的时候会包含一些补充你正在收看的相关网站或内容的链接。”
如今所见：几乎现在所有的商家都会有一个插图编号来让浏览者去指定网站的，根本没有一个网站的节目是很罕见的。
No. 11: Online discussion boards.（在线聊天区）
Gates' prediction: "Residents of cities and countries will be able to have internet-based discussions concerning issues that affect them, such as local politics, city planning, or safety."
What we see now: Most news sites have comment sections where people can have live discussions, and many sites have forums where people can ask and respond to certain questions. Twitter and Facebook played roles in political revolutions in Libya, Egypt, and Tunisia, as well as the Black Lives Matter movement in the US.
盖茨预言：“城市和乡村的居民们可以进行一些关于影响他们生活的议题的网络讨论，比如当地政治，城市规划，或者是安全问题。”
如今所见：大多数的新网站都会有评论区供人们直接讨论，并且很多网站还有论坛，人们可以提问和回答一些相关问题。推特和脸书在利比亚，埃及和突尼斯的政治变革，以及美国的“黑人生命也重要”的事件上扮演着重要角色。
No. 12: Interest-based online sites.（基于兴趣的在线网站）
Gates' prediction: "Online communities will not be influenced by your location, but rather, your interest."
What we see now: Many news sites have expanded to include separate verticals, offering more in-depth coverage on a given topic.
盖茨预言：“在线社区不会被你的位置所影响，相反，会被你的兴趣所影响。”
如今所见：许多新闻网站已经扩展到包括独立的思考线，为特定的主题提供更深入的报道。
No. 13: Project-management software.（项目管理软件）
Gates' prediction:"Project managers looking to put a team together will be able to go online, describe the project, and receive recommendations for available people who would fit their requirements."
What we see now: Tons of workflow software in the enterprise space is revolutionizing how you recruit, form teams, and assign work to others.
盖茨预言：“想把一个团队集合在一起的项目经理可以在网上描述这个项目，并且接受符合他们要求的人们的建议。”
如今所见：大量企业领域的工作流程软件正在根据你的招聘、组队以及分配任务的方式在进行变革。
No. 14: Online recruiting.（在线招聘）
Gates' prediction: "Similarly, people looking for work will be able to find employment opportunities online by declaring their interest, needs, and specialized skills."
What we see now: Sites like LinkedIn allow users to upload résumés and find jobs based on interests and needs, and recruiters can search based on specialized skills.
盖茨预言：“同样，找工作的人们可以在线通过阐明他们的兴趣，需求以及特殊技能来找寻工作机会。”
如今所见：像LinkedIn这样的网站能允许用户上传自己的简历并且基于兴趣和需求来找工作，招聘人们就可以基于特殊技能来寻找适合自己公司的人才。
No. 15: Business community software.（商业社区软件）
Gates' prediction: "Companies will be able to bid on jobs, whether they are looking for a construction project, a movie production, or an advertising campaign. This will be efficient for both big companies that want to outsource work that they don't usually face, businesses looking for new clients, and corporations that don't have a go-to provider for the said service."
What we see now: Much enterprise software is focused on social aspects, so users can reach out to other businesses and start a conversation that could lead to bigger projects directly within their apps. The so-called gig economy, with sites like Upwork, lets big businesses easily connect with freelance designers, writers, or engineers to do work they're looking to outsource.
盖茨预言：无论是寻找建设项目，一个电影制作或者是广告活动，公司都可以投标。这对想要外包他们不熟悉的工程以及寻找新客户的大公司以及没有对所述服务的供应者的公司都是十分有效率的。
如今所见：大多数企业软件都聚焦在社会方面，因此用户可以与其他企业联系，开始对话，这可以让他们在应用程序中直接做大项目。 所谓的演艺经济，像Upwork这样的网站，让大企业轻松连接自由设计师，作家或工程师去做外包工作。
说实话，大王看到比尔·盖茨的这十五个预言第一个反应就是这么说来咱们毛爷爷也算是神级预言帝，毕竟他老人家以前写过“可上九天揽月，可下五洋捉鳖。”这样的诗词。现在咱们月球都去了多少回了，这也算是毛爷爷预测的实现吧。
所以不要害怕未知，大胆地去设想，去预言，哪怕在当下一时半会儿做不到，但终会有做成的那一天。
我
喜欢请点赞
微信号：King_of_English
大王愿意每天为你：
熬制励志鸡汤、推送英文干货
分享有趣的国外消息图文
让你体验英语学习的乐趣
而你只需要：
分享，让更多人获得英语的灵感和帮助
赞赏，大王也需要你的鼓励
评论，充分表达你的想法
（ref:the independent）